Worth reading and learning about the big ideas that are running our world. The author poses a lot of questions to the reader, but leaves many of them unanswered. Both politicians and economists are missing the fact that the real engine of economic growth has always been cheap, abundant fuel and resources. As an economy grows and demands more oil, so too does the price. Instead of moving us toward economic recovery In an urgent follow-up to his best-selling Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller, Jeff Rubin argues that the end of cheap oil means the end of growth.
. This may not be all bad - as human ingenuity always seems to rise to meet the challenges. While a lot of the concepts in the book have entered my thoughts at times through other avenues, this book has the facts to back them up and connect them all. Economist and resource analyst Jeff Rubin is certain that the world's governments are getting it wrong. The resource is not going anywhere. And as the Euro trembles, the stage is being set for a return of the drachma, escudo, peseta, Irish pound, and lira. I'm not sure if high oil prices will help save the world from climate change, but they certainly will make people think a bit more about the energy that they use.
I read so much original content and original ideas here. Thought it was very similar in many respects to his first book. If China decides to focus on tapping the potential of its huge domestic market, rather than supplying cheap goods to faraway Wal-Marts, the economic balance of power will tilt decidedly eastward. Some predict a clash of Earth with obscure objects in the milky-way will end it all others predict that there will be a nuclear war. In other words, I'm producing as much as would have been produced 20 years ago, but with a small fraction of the oil, electricity, metal, glass, copper wire and plastic as before. The reason for slow growth is more than high oil prices. Growth has been the 'Holy Grail' of modern society, either directly or indirectly motivating the activities of every working individual who contributes to his or her national economy.
And the Germans have begun to use job-sharing to cushion the impact of an economic downturn. We need to keep moving on green energy for the sake of our children and theirs and generations to follow. Then, after 2050, we may have modest growth again using the fission breeder, but overconsumption will never return. Very simply stated, Rubin's point is that the energy we've relied on in the past is no longer cheap or easily accessible. However, in the current unstable state of the world economy, I am more convinced that government stimulus is the proper measure which nations and central banks must implement now as advised by Paul Krugman End this Depression Now.
Rubin begins with the basics, including a brief overview of fiscal and monetary policy, monetarists and Keynesians, and economic growth. Instead of moving us toward economic recovery, measures being taken around the globe right now are digging us into a deeper hole. Rehashed many of the same things but with a bit of a different take on the results. And that means an end to the traditional idea of economic growth. I am not convinced it is that simple, there are certainly other factors in play. It uses hardly any electricity.
They're well-thought thought experiments, but there's too many and could have been beneficial to expand further on some of his ideas. Rubin argues that our economies can only grow on the back of cheap energy and that cheap energy will no longer exist in our world. Love your explanation on subsidies and fuel tax. I found he didn't really explain why this linkage exists; rather, he asserted it as a fact. Soaring transport costs suddenly change the entire economics of importing everything from cheap labour markets half way around the world.
In February, he launched his first book, The Boiling Frog Dilemma: Saving Canada from Economic Decline. Government policies and current lifestyles predicated on economic growth fueled by cheap oil are misdirected and outdated, respectively, and will be forced to change. Expensive fuel would have other consequences. Every one involved in economics or finance at any level should take the time to read this book. The last recession was caused because interest rates were hiked to offset energy inflation, which in turn led thousands and thousands of homeowners to default on mortgage payments. But that era is over.
What it will be like to live in a world where growth is over? The Danish have embraced a much less carbon-centric existence because of their government's use of cost deterrents. The end of cheap oil, Rubin argues, signals the end of growth--and the end of easy answers to renewing prosperity. Ever wondered how our economies can continue to succeed if success is based on growth yet the world's resources are finite? How much longer will Greece slavishly heed the demands of its creditors and impose punishing austerity measures with the only result being the continuing implosion of its economy? The key premise here is that economic growth depends on inexpensive energy provided by oil and other fossil fuels. There is a glimmer of optimism near the end of this book hence the subtitle , but overall it paints a bleak picture. It's just stated as fact. There is so much uncertainty around the size oil and coal reserves around the world that it is difficult, potentially impossible, to know if this is true.
But that era is over. Every industrial nation's government regards its people the way Seymour regarded his plant. In reality, the two are inextricable and, increasingly, need to be treated as such, according to Jeff Rubin, the award-winning economist who, along with David Suzuki, wraps up a cross-Canada tour addressing the juncture of the two issues on October 18, 2012 in Alumni Hall. There was an interesting chapter about Denmark where the cost of energy has reduced the consumption levels. According to there are 150 predictions of the end of the world prior to the Mayan's.
Alberta has allowed the oil and gas industry to use our province as a path to profit. And I'm less hopeful than Rubin is that we'll somehow find our way out of this mess without addressing global population. This is especially apparent in Japan and western Europe, where the overall population will soon start to shrink. I thought it was a thought-provoking read, and recommend it to people interested in economics and environmental issues. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.